Boro go into tonights final group game with a slender advantage over second place Alkmaar, in fact just one goal separates the two sides, Boro with a f4 a0 (+4) record and Alkmaar with a f4 a1 (+3) record.
If Boro are to avoid the drop-outs from the Champions League they must win the group, or finish third.
If they do win the group they will play a team finishing third in another group. If they finish third they will play the winners of another group.
The UEFA Cup rules states the following:
If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of all group matches, the following criteria will be applied to determine the ranking:
a)superior goal difference from all group matches playedForget item d), it is not possible for this to come into play, but it’s complicated enough given the possible results from the final two games.
b)higher number of goals scored
c)higher number of away goals scored
d)higher number of coefficient points accumulated by the clubs in question, as well as its association, over the previous five seasons.
Here is my interpretation of the possible outcomes:
Boro and Alkmaar win
If Boro match, or better, Alkmaar’s result against Grasshoppers, Boro win the group on goal difference, Alkmaar are second and Litex are third.
ie. Alkmaar win 2-0 and Boro win 2-0
If Alkmaar win by one more goal than Boro but Boro outscore Alkmaar, Boro win the group on goals scored, Alkmaar are second and Litex are third.
ie. Alkmaar win 2-0 and Boro win 3-2
If Alkmaar win by one more goal than Boro but Boro don’t outscore Alkmaar, Alkmaar win the group on goals scored or away goals scored, Boro are second and Litex are third.
ie. Alkmaar win 2-0 and Boro win 2-1 (Alkmaar win on away goals)
Alkmaar win 2-0 and Boro win 1-0 (Alkmaar win on goals scored)
If Boro win and Alkmaar draw or lose, Boro win the group, Alkmaar are second and Litex are third.
If Boro draw and Alkmaar draw or lose, Boro win the group, second and third depends on Alkmaar result.
If Boro lose and Alkmaar win, Alkmaar win the group, Litex are second and Boro are third.
If Boro lose And Alkmaar draw, Litex win the group, Alkmaar are second and Boro are third.
If Boro lose and Alkmaar lose, Litex win the group, second and third depends on Boro and Alkmaar results.
Simple, now you understand as much as me!!!